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The rapid demographic
transition and, in particular, the fast decline in mortality rates during the
latter half of the twentieth century has caused age-structural changes and ageing
of populations in many developing countries.
The rapid growth of economies
in East Asia in recent years, which has resulted in substantial increases of
per capita income and reductions of poverty, can be largely attributed to the
favourable role played by the age-structural changes of the population in that
region. Various studies have revealed that the shift in age structures has had
a profound impact on economic growth through savings and investments.
Consequently, there is
a strong need to examine demographic transitions, age-structural changes and
ageing of populations at national and regional levels against the backdrop of
planning for the economic development and welfare of the population in general
and of the elderly in particular.
This issue of The Demographic
Profile of Arab Countries highlights the course of fertility and mortality transitions,
and examines trends in rural and urban populations in the 22 countries of the
Arab region for the period 1980-2050. Additionally, it exposes age-structural
changes and ageing of rural populations for the period 1980-2015 in eight selected
Arab countries, namely, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia, Syrian Arab Republic,
Somalia and Yemen. While the process of ageing in the Arab region is comparatively
a recent phenomenon, there is evidence to suggest that population ageing in
rural areas began considerably sooner in many countries. Within that context,
the two most important determinants of ageing of rural populations in developing
countries are rural-to-urban migration of the working-age population in search
of employment, and urban-to-rural migration of the population aged 65 and over
(65+) after retirement from the workforce, both of which accelerate rural ageing.
The prevailing discussion
is extended on demographic transition, age-structural change and ageing in two
ways, namely: (a) spatial variations of the selected eight Arab countries aimed
at shedding light on the migration element of age-structural change and at focusing
attention on the working-age population with a strong propensity to migrate
to urban areas;3 and (b) compositional differences within the age groups of
interest, namely, 15-64 and 65+. These two issues are examined in the first
two sections of this paper. The final section focuses on the main developmental
challenges posed by rural-to-urban migration and rural ageing; and presents
conclusions and recommendations, highlighting relevant and sound policies.
Data and methodology The revised population estimates of the United Nations
given by age and sex from 1980 to 2050 are
used to study ageing and to examine fertility and mortality trends in the 22
countries of the Arab region.4 In the absence of a suitable breakdown of rural-urban
population groups by age distributions and given the vital need to understand
rural-to-urban migration patterns in broad age groups, this investigation attempted
to split the available population estimates by rural-urban residence for the
selected eight Arab countries under study.
Unfortunately, the analysis
of age-specific trends of rural/urban populations for rural population projections
by age was hampered by limited data on rural-urban residences for these countries
at the base period. Consequently, two proxies were used to obtain rural population
projections, namely: (a) the trend of total rural population for each of the
selected eight countries over a comparatively short period, in other words up
to 2015; and (b) the rural population age distribution of each of the selected
eight countries projected to 2015, with the assumption of a constant age structure
of rural population at the base year (1980)
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